政治紧张局势、移民动态、俄乌战争以及中国在原材料领域的主导地位等因素,正在重塑全球供应链.新的分析强调了关键的地缘政治风险,并概述了企业必须从2020-2022年的供应链危机中吸取的教训。

Global supply chains face increasing strain as geopolitical tensions and raw material dependencies continue to grow.

To take only a single aspect of the current “deportation of illegal aliens” dialogue as an example, deporting children of illegal immigrants born on U.S. soil (“Dreamers”) would deplete the U.S. workforce of ~300,000 future U.S. workers at a time when the U.S. is at full employment (i.e., unemployment was at 4.3% as of the end of August). Losing this many workers would create a future disaster. Where, exactly, will the workers come from to fill the void? The U.S. birth rate is below replacement rate, so future workers essential to maintain GDP will not come from within the borders of the United States. Period.

随着地缘政治紧张局势和对原材料的依赖持续增长,全球供应链面临越来越大的压力.

仅以美国当前的“驱逐非法外国人”政策为例,该政策旨在驱逐在美国土地上出生的非法移民的子女（“梦想者”）,在美国处于充分就业状态的现在,（截至8月底失业率为4.3%）,这一驱逐政策,一次性剥夺了未来美国至少三十万的劳动力,并会造成久远的灾难,如今美国出生率已经低于置换率,美国要从哪里再找这么多人,来填补维持GDP和社会运转的劳动力这一空缺呢? 反正美国没有.

Deporting 7MM? 9MM? 11MM? (pick a number) of illegal immigrants will affect the following areas in which ways and to what degree?

› Seasonal harvesting — the U.S. is currently experiencing a significant shortage of career and seasonal farm workers
› Seasonal farmworkers aging out — resulting in higher prices to consumers and putting some farms out of business
› Migrant workers are not illegal immigrants nor are they deadbeats — they are mandatory for maintaining a healthy economy, both now and into the future.
› Illegal immigrants are not automatically criminals, other than for committing the crime of crossing the border without permission — the clear majority of “illegal immigrants” have no criminal records.
› In fact, according to the Department of Homeland Security, of the 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., only 3% are convicted felons, and an additional 4% have non-felony convictions.
› Per the University of Georgia, of the 341 million U.S. citizens, 8% are convicted felons and 20% have non-felony convictions.
› The world’s largest economy is coming precipitously close to doing what the Germans call, “Das Kind mit dem Bade ausschütten” — “throwing the baby out with the bathwater.”

驱逐七百万,九百万,一千一百万非法移民(数字可自选),将会以何种方式和何种程度影响以下领域？

*季节性收获,美国目前严重短缺专职性和季节性农场工人

*而随着季节性农场工人老龄化,消费者价格上涨,一些农场被迫停业

*移民工人不是有罪人员,也不是游手好闲的人,不管现在或将来,这些人都是维持健康经济的必要条件.

*非法移民除偷渡这一罪责,未必有其他罪责,显然大多数“非法移民”没有犯罪记录。事实上,根据国土安全部的数据,在美国1100万无证移民中,只有3%有被判重罪,另有4%有非重罪.而根据佐治亚大学的数据,在3.41亿合法美国公民中,有8%重罪犯,20%非重罪犯.

*而如今,美国这一全球最大的经济体,正非常接近德国人所说的“把婴儿连同洗澡水一起倒掉”（Das Kind mit dem Bade ausschütten）。

› Changes in supply – typical example:
› China used to produce copper phthalocyanine pigments for finishing in India.
› China is now able to manage the entire Cu/phthalo supply chain internally, from basic reactions to drying and finishing.

› Concerns about trade route security/stability:
› Houthis in the Red Sea
› Potential blockading of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran
› Possible American interference in Panama
› Importance of GIUK (Greenland, Iceland, United Kingdom) Gap? Real? Perceived? Military only? Maritime only? Both military and maritime?
› Concerns about Hong-Kong-based operation of ports at either end of the Panama Canal

› Implications of Russia/Ukraine War
› Negotiated settlement
› Enforced settlement
› Continued warfare — including the role of North Korean military personnel and Chinese munitions?

› Increasing dissatisfaction with China by both the U.S. and EU
› Tariff issues
› Concerns over Taiwan
› Support, albeit minimal, for the Russians in the War Against Ukraine

› Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
– Silk Road Economic Belt
– 21st Century Maritime Silk Road
– Polar Silk Road
– Other components of BRI

– Degenerating diplomatic relationships — we are in a “Geopolitical Recession,” which is characterized by Borge Brende, president of The World Economic Forum, by global fragmentation and polarization, leading to less cooperation and more competition than in the past.

– Supply concerns — China produces:
• 42% of all epoxy resin
• 44% of all chemicals
• 50% of the world’s steel
• 70% of all rare earth ore
• 90% of all refined rare earth metals

*全球供应关系存在变化.举个例子,中国曾需要在印度生产用于精加工的酞菁铜颜料,而中国现在能自行解决从基础反应到干燥到精加工在内的整个铜/邻苯二甲酸供应链.

*对贸易路线安全/稳定性的关切：红海的胡塞武装;伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的潜在封锁;美国对巴拿马的可能干涉;GIUK（格陵兰岛、冰岛、英国）之间航道的重要性(是否存在安全稳定性问题,各方政府是否意识到存在问题,只是军事或航运问题?还是军事/航运皆有问题?);对李嘉诚香港和记港口集团在巴拿马运河两端运营港口的担忧

*俄罗斯/乌克兰战争的影响:是靠协商解决还是强制和解;持续战争问题(是否存在朝鲜军人及中国军火)

*美国和欧盟对中国的不满日益加剧:关税问题;中国的台湾问题;在俄乌战争中,对俄方的支持（尽管微乎其微）;

*中国的 “一带一路”倡议的影响:丝绸之路经济带,21世纪海上丝绸之路,北极丝绸之路,及 “一带一路”其他组成部分

*外交关系退化:根据世界经济论坛主席博尔格·布伦德的总结,我们正处于全球分裂和两极分化导致的“地缘政治衰退”阶段,这将导致合作减少,竞争增加.

*供应问题:中国生产了全球42%的环氧树脂,全球44%的所有化学品,全球50%的钢铁,全球70%的稀土矿石,及90%的精炼稀土金属

The lessons the world learned following The Great Supply Chain Crisis will continue to be of great value as geopolitical, economic, and other challenges impact the supply chain. Specialty chemicals companies should particularly remain cognizant of issues related to raw material supply, logistics, customers, and research and development.

随着地缘政治、经济和其他挑战对供应链的影响,全球从“大供应链危机”中吸取的教训将继续具有重要价值.特种化学品公司尤其应该意识到与原材料供应、物流、客户和研发相关的问题.

Every raw material used to make paint and coatings – as well as all other formulated specialty chemicals in other areas, such as adhesives; lubricants; household, industrial, and institutional cleaners (HI&I); sealants; plastics; and elastomers – should have at least one reliable vendor in either the country or the region that either makes the material in that country or region or has significant stocking capacity thereof. Within the broader supply chain, raw materials that are single-sourced are accidents waiting to happen. Whenever possible, it is best to have alternate raw materials (and alternate suppliers) approved for every raw material that is used in routine production. Every formulating producer should have multiple suppliers whenever possible (at least 2–3), so that it has a purchasing record with companies other than its primary supplier. Violation of this rule should be tolerated only due to the absence of a second source.

从供应链方面来讲,各种油漆和涂料,粘合剂/润滑剂,家用/工业用/机构用清洁剂,密封胶/塑料/弹性体等配方特种化学品类,所需的每种原材料,在该国家/地区应至少有一家可靠的供应商,而该供应商要么能本土生产该材料,要么具有超强库存能力.而在广义供应链中,单一来源的原材料就意味着定时炸弹一样的事故.除非某原料只有一个供应商,商家别无选择,不然日常生产中使用的原材料,最好有合格的替代原材料（和替代供应商）,如果可能,配方生产商都应有多个供应商（至少2-3个）.

Possibly the most devastating aspect of The Great Supply Chain Crisis was the inability to ship and receive goods, even when there was supply and orders could be filled. Containers were often in ports where they could not be easily retrieved, and panic orders were so high that there would have been insufficient containers to carry the goods, even if they had been in more convenient locations. Container ships were anchored and moored at sea and stacked up at ports where there was insufficient manpower to unload them and too few trucks to provide intermodal transportation from the docks to the final destination. Shipping costs rose dramatically, and the entire global trading community had to sit helplessly by, because so little could be done to rectify the situation in anything approaching real time. While transportation costs came down post-crisis, they have never returned to pre-crisis levels.

The message here is both easy to visualize and difficult to achieve: Availability of raw materials is of little value if they cannot be transported to the facility that will turn them into saleable formulated products. Manufacturers absolutely must be building reliable logistics capability now, and pressure testing it in real time to make sure that when the next supply chain crisis strikes, they have maximum ability to transport materials from the source to their production facilities.

大供应链危机最具破坏性的方面,可能不是供应链或订单的缺乏,而是无法运送和接收货物.集装箱通常存放在不易取回的港口,但遇上大供应链危机,哪怕集装箱在附近,只要客户出于恐慌性多下单,也会存在运货集装箱不够无法运送问题.而哪怕运送没出问题,到达目的港后,集装箱船在海上抛锚停泊,堆放在港口,如果目的港没有足够的人力卸货,没有足够的卡车提供从码头到目的地的多式联运,那客户还是收不到货物.大供应链危机导致航运成本急剧上升,整个全球贸易界只能被迫袖手旁观,无能为力.此外,尽管运输成本在危机后有所下降,但从未恢复到危机前的水平.

这里传达的信息容易理解但操作困难:如果原材料无法被运到加工厂,将其转化为可销售的配方产品,那么原材料的获得,将毫无价值.生产商们现在绝对必须建立可靠的物流能力,并对其进行实时压力测试,以确保在下次供应链危机发生时,能尽力将材料从源头运输到生产设施。

Both raw material suppliers and their customers, whether they are producing paints and coatings, adhesives, lubricants, household cleaners, or anything else in the specialty chemicals value chain, rate their customers and suppliers (officially or unofficially) on an “A,” “B,” “C,” scale:

› “A” customers — Participate in genuine partnerships; purchases made on overall value, not lowest price; loyalty; fair payment terms; on-time delivery; overall quality; quality of technical service; quality of sales service; significant history of working together, clear establishment of trust; etc.

› “C” customers — Chase every penny down the rabbit hole; consolidate purchases with minimum number of products to obtain pricing; indulge in hoarding behaviour; treat R/M suppliers as if they were loan officers at banks; are guilty of poor forecasting; have excessive “RUSH” orders; refuse to pay small-batch upcharges; etc.

› “B” customers — Mixtures of “A” and “C” characteristics. What does it take to turn a B customer into an A customer? How about turning a B customer into a C customer? When are these changes most likely to happen?

In a stable business environment, it is possible to have an “A-B-C” classification without the need to actually invoke it. Business is good, orders are heavy, time is limited – so little thought is given to the overall effect that different raw material suppliers and customers are having on your bottom line, much less on your supply chain.

During hard times, however, it is important to make sure that those suppliers and customers that enable you to realize the highest value for your business are absolutely the focus of your attention. If you are a resin producer with only a single tank wagon of a resin that six of your customers are begging for, and one of them is a small but growing “A” customer and another is a very large but excessively demanding “C” customer, give some serious thought to rewarding the small “A” customer. You are likely to find that your action will be rewarded many times over.

化工行业各环节各品类的原材料供应商及其客户们,不管正式与非正式,都会按照“A”、“B”、“C”等级对其客户和供应商进行评级:

“A”级客户-参与真正的合作伙伴关系;不是打折才会购买的客户;忠诚;付款及时;交货准时;产品质量及技术支持质量;销售服务质量;重要的合作历史,明确建立信任;等等

“C”类客户——对钱财斤斤计较的客户;只买最少量来骗取定价;热爱囤货;将供应商视为银行信贷员;对预测失误感到愧疚;过多冲动下急单历史;对小批量货物的附加费斤斤计较等等。

“B”类客户。“A”和“C”特性的混合物.怎样才能把B客户变成a客户？什么情况下B客户会变成C类客户?这些都是问题.

当业务环境稳定时,生意很好,订单很多,时间有限的缘故,一个公司可以有“a - b - c”分类,但不需要实际调用它,也很少考虑不同的原材料供应商和客户对你的底线的整体影响,更不用说对你的供应链了.然而在困难时期,要着重确保那些能让你实现企业最高价值的供应商.如果你的货物有限供不应求,在一个小但不断增长的a类客户,和一个非常大但要求过高的C类客户间做出选择,那就认真考虑奖励小的a类客户,可能你很快就会获得回报。

Any raw material supplier or producer of formulated products is in a technology market space, and it is incumbent upon them to keep a clear focus on this fact. The development of new and significantly improved products is the lifeblood of any producer’s efforts to enhance its market share in the specialty chemical industries. Absolutely nothing should prevent at least a minimum amount of true R&D from taking place, even during the darkest hours when all hands are on deck trying to put out fires. Coatings is a technology-based, global industry — those with a strategy focused on the continual development of new and improved products will be the winners.

任何原料供应商或配方产品生产商都处于技术市场空间,他们必须认清这个事实.开发新产品和改进旧产品,是生产商提高其市场竞争力的命脉,不管企业处于任何艰难时刻,都应保有哪怕最低限度真正研发.涂料是个以技术为基础的全球性行业,那些专注于不断开发新产品和改进产品的战略者将成为赢家。

There is a desperate need in paints, coatings, and other formulating industries to learn from the past, including from the recent, post-Covid past. When it comes to being prepared for geopolitical shifts that might affect global supply chains, developing resilient and transparent supply chains is of primary importance. This is closely followed by building a geopolitical view from the perspective of your own company. It doesn’t require additional computation power or fancy systems, but it does require that everyone within the specialty chemical value chain who either produces raw materials or final formulated products, become more familiar with what’s going on in the world and how it might affect them. Being prepared for a variety of events that could occur is the only way in which anyone can be protected from those that DO occur. Become informed about your supply chain — those who purchase a mixed metal oxide pigment containing cobalt should at the very least know what is happening in the cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This is not an unreasonable step to take — if you need a cobalt-based coloured inorganic calcined pigment (CICP) in your paint products, you will need this knowledge to protect your supply. Enhance your organization’s ability to sense and respond to changing geopolitical landscapes — encourage the appropriate parties in your organizations to read publications such as The Economist; Financial Times; and The Wall Street Journal. Never view the time spent studying these publications as “wasted” or “down” time – we live in a new age, and it requires that we be knowledgeable about different issues that may have been of significantly less importance in the past.

Along with these actions, provide whatever in-house or outside training is necessary to strengthen decision-making processes to remain agile and to enable your company to embed geopolitical scenarios and analysis into capital allocation decisions and strategic planning exercises. Make a concerted effort to expand your presence in growth markets – what was once a “hope for the future” should now be considered to be “what is needed right now.” Above all, embrace smart nearshoring, friendshoring, and reshoring. These are not merely slogans designed to get industry participants excited about changing the future – they are the means by which industry participants will be able to change the future.

While recognizing that not every company can invest in regional differentiation, there are, nonetheless, many raw material and finished product producers that could, if they wished to do so. In our current geopolitical climate, it is better to try and fail, than not to try at all. Most companies are capable of doing far more than they give themselves credit for, so challenge those items that the organization is sure that it cannot do – and, when in doubt, give the author a call at The Chem Quest Group. We’ve spent the past 49 years helping members in the specialty chemical chain do things that they never dreamed were possible.

油漆、涂料和其他配方行业,迫切需要从后新冠疫情等过去经验中吸取教训.在遇到可能影响全球供应链的地缘政治变化前,首先发展有弹性和透明的供应链,其次从公司角度建立地缘政治思维.建立地缘政治思维,不需要额外的计算能力或花哨的系统,但它确实要求产业链上的每一个环节,都更熟悉世界变革及其影响,从而能为可能发生的各种事件做好准备,才能保护自己免受影响.我们生活在一个新时代,一个要求我们了解不同问题,哪怕这些问题在过去可能不那么重要.

企业一方面需要了解自己的供应链---那些购买含钴混合金属氧化物颜料(钴基有色无机煅烧颜料（CICP）)的人至少应该知道刚果民主共和国钴矿的情况,另一方面提高组织感知和应对不断变化的地缘政治格局的能力--鼓励公司相应人员阅读《经济学人》《金融时报等出版物》《华尔街日报》等出版物,花在这些上的时间绝不是“浪费”或“沮丧”的时间.

在此之上,提供必要内部/外部培训,以保持敏捷性及加强决策过程,使公司能够将地缘政治情景和分析嵌入到资本分配决策和战略规划练习中,共同努力扩大公司在成长型市场这一以前“未来的希望”及“现在需要的东西”中的存在.重中之重,是拥抱智能型近岸、友岸和回流,这些词汇,并不是吸引行业参与者对改变未来感到兴奋而设计的口号,它们是行业参与者能够改变未来的手段.

虽然不是每个公司都可以投资于区域差异化,但许多原材料和成品生产商如果愿意还是能做到的.在当前地缘政治气候下,尝试失败总比根本不尝试好.大多数公司能力其实都比超出自身预估许多,所以可以尝试挑战那些认为不可能之事务,当然,如果有疑问,可以联系the Chem Quest Group的作者,过去49年里,他们一直在帮助特种化学品连锁企业的成员实现他们从未梦想过的事情。

As global trade fragments and regionalization accelerates, organizations will need to adopt differentiated structures and technology stacks – a one-size-fits-all approach will no longer suffice. Neither does it make sense to do everything on your own, when help is available. We should try not to think in terms of “inside help” and “outside help.” This is a misleading differentiation that has prevented many, many organizations within the specialty chemicals value chain from realizing their full potential. Now is not the time to “do it yourself.”

In the changing world in which we live, in-house assets are increasingly challenged, and strategic product development must either involve the expansion of current R&D staff or the use of outside know-how and expertise to augment internal efforts. Fortunately, it is both possible and profitable to take this latter approach. Independent third-party individual knowledge experts, strategic consulting firms, and technology organizations are able to bring extensive knowledge in multiple fields of specialty chemicals to bear on the advancement and cross-fertilization of technology at both raw material suppliers and coatings producers.

We are poised upon the threshold of a “Brave New World” of sorts, and it is time to step over the threshold, reconsider how we perform R&D, and enter into the future of the global coatings industry with appropriate strategy and technology to prepare us to overcome the stumbling blocks of global geopolitics and flourish in the future.

随着全球贸易碎片化和区域化的加速,各组织要放弃一刀切政策,要采用差异化的结构和技术堆栈,放弃 “内部帮助”和“外部帮助”这种阻碍公司间潜力发挥的误导性区分,接受外部帮助,没必要费力自给自足.现在已经不是非得“自己动手”的时候了。

在如今生活不断变化的世界中,固步自封受到越来越多的挑战,想要战略性产品开发,必须扩大现有研发人员,或使用外部专有技术和专业知识来增加内部的努力,幸运的是,采用后一种方法既可能又有益,独立的第三方专家/战略咨询公司/技术组织能够结合多领域的广泛知识用于原材料供应商和涂料生产商的技术进步和交叉反哺回馈。

我们正出于“美丽新世界”的门槛上,是时候跨过门槛,重新考虑该如何进行研发,并以适当的战略技术,为克服全球地缘政治这一绊脚石做好准备,进入全球涂料行业蓬勃发展的未来

备注:

本文章原文来自欧洲涂料网站: https://www.european-coatings.com/news/markets-companies/tarrifs-how-geopolitics-is-reshaping-global-trade-and-supply-chains-2-2/

原作者: George R. Pilcher, The ChemQuest Group

最初发布时间: 01.12.2025

图片来源: Fikri Haikal - stock.adobe.com

翻译为广州九维提供.