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The market situation has forced purchasing departments and labs to become extremely creative and flexible overnight. This is a novelty for what is generally a very conservative industry. Of course, even before the Covid-19 pandemic, there were always paint manufacturers who were always extremely resourceful and flexible. However, they constituted a small, albeit usually financially successful minority. The “raw materials supply crisis” also shows us the technical and economic potential that many paint companies possess. It just needs to be activated. In this situation, paint manufacturers have also got to know what their suppliers and partners are really like. Business relations with current suppliers have in some cases been further strengthened or supplemented or else replaced by new suppliers who would otherwise have had little chance of acquiring that status prior to Corona.

市场形势迫使采购部门和实验室在一夜之间变得极富创造力和灵活性.对于一个传统上非常保守的行业来说，这是件新奇事。当然，即便是在Covid-19大流行之前，涂料制造商就一直非常明智和灵活，然而，尽管通常在经济上很成功, 这些人在行业中只占少数. “原材料供应危机”也向我们展示了许多涂料企业的技术和经济潜力。这些公司只需要被激活。在这种情况下，涂料厂家也要了解他们的供应商和合作伙伴到底是什么样的。在某些情况下，与现有供应商的业务关系得到了进一步加强或补充，不然就有新的供应商来取代原有供货商，而在新冠之前，新供应商几乎有这个替换的机会.

Many people are asking themselves: What are the causes of this unprecedented situation in the chemical industry and what does the future hold? The answer is very complex and is additionally exacerbated by the very rapid V-shaped economic recovery by China in 2021 and the associated demand for key raw materials. That demand is the reason why the available raw materials are not even reaching Europe, but rather are being sold in Asia at significantly higher prices. Further aggravating the situation is state-controlled bans imposed on exports of certain raw materials from this region.

很多人都在问自己:化工行业出现这种前所未有的局面的原因是什么?未来会怎样? 答案非常复杂，特别是中国在2021年非常迅速的V型经济复苏后,对关键原材料的需求大幅增加，进一步加剧了原材料危机.这个危机甚至导致原有原材料直接在亚洲高价售出,无法运达欧洲. 亚洲国家对该地区某些原材料的出口实行禁令，使原材料情况进一步恶化.

China has been the largest chemical producer in the world since 2019, with sales of almost EUR 1.5 trillion, followed by NAFTA at around EUR 570 billion and Europe at EUR 543 billion [1]. The Chinese chemical industry accounts for some 40.6 % of global sales [1]. Sales by the European chemical industry have continued to decline on a global scale in recent years, and came in at around 14.8 % (EU27) in 2019 [1].

自2019年以来，中国一直是世界上最大的化学品生产国，销售额近1.5万亿欧元，其次是北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)国家，销售额约为5700亿欧元，欧洲为5430亿欧元。中国化工行业的销售额约占全球的40.6%。近年来，欧洲化工行业在全球范围内的销售额持续下降，2019年的销售额约为14.8% (EU27)。

The current boom in the Chinese petrochemical industry is happening in the production of ethylene via steam cracking of inexpensive ethane sourced mainly from shale gas deposits in the USA [2]. Among other things, ethylene is required for the production of vinyl acetate. The bulk of the ethylene in China still comes from steam reforming of naphtha in petrochemical refineries [2].目前，中国石化行业的蓬勃发展主要是通过蒸汽裂解廉价乙烷来生产乙烯，这些乙烷主要来自美国的页岩气.除此之外，乙烯还被用于生产醋酸乙烯.中国乙烯的主要来源仍然是轻油转化.

The European coatings industry’s dependence on the Chinese market is set to increase because China is the only country pursuing a long-term strategy of independence for its chemical industry. It is the main producer of numerous basic raw materials needed for the production of, e.g., photoinitiators, pigments and dyes. The Chinese chemical industry is striving for complete independence from the rest of the world. China is currently concentrating its petrochemical industry into five regional chemical clusters in order to exploit cluster synergies (arising from integrated production sites). Reasons for this concentration are the avoidance of accidents and environmental damage, control and cleaning of process wastewater, better management of chemical production and, last but not least, sufficient distance away from cities and proximity to seaports.

欧洲涂料行业对中国市场的依赖注定会增加，因为中国是唯一追求长期战略性化学行业独立的国家。它是光引发剂、颜料和染料等众多化学品的基础原材料的生产商,中国的化学行业正在争取完全独立于世界。中国目前正将其石化工业集中为五个区域化工集群，以利用集群协同效应(通过建立众多化工综合生产基地).这种集中是为了避免事故和环境损害、控制和清洗过程废水、更好地管理化学生产，但最重要的是远离城市和接近港口。

In recent years, a tightening of state controls has led to temporary or permanent closure of chemical companies, and especially of smaller companies, that did not want to settle in the new chemical parks. The impact on supply chains was present even before the corona pandemic, and is still being felt today. The situation is made worse by a global container-shortage, fully booked freighters, congested ports and the temporary closure of central ports due to Corona outbreaks, as a result of which transport costs from Asia to Europe have surged.

近年来，由于国家控制的收紧，一些化工企业暂时或永久关闭，尤其是那些不想在新的化工园区落户的小型企业.其实在新冠大流行之前，供应链就受到了影响，而影响仍在继续。由于全球集装箱短缺、货轮全部订满、港口超负荷，以及新冠导致的中心港口的临时关闭，情况变得更糟，从而导致了亚洲到欧洲的运输成本飙升.

The vast majority of the basic chemicals used in the production of coatings raw materials are obtained from crude oil and natural gas. This means that availability stands and falls with crude oil production and refining. In the current corona situation, relatively low refinery output has been and still is a further factor contributing to the general shortage of raw materials. Reducing production volumes should stabilise the collapse that has occurred in crude oil prices during the pandemic. Lower oil prices resulting from the corona pandemic and production cuts by OPEC+1 have led to falling export revenues in the oil-dependent Gulf states [3]. A further driver of the decline that should not be overlooked is the most recent price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia in spring 2020 [3]. Thus, disruptions to the supply chain have been around since the very outset.

涂料原料生产中使用的绝大多数基本化学品是从原油和天然气中获得的。这意味着化学原料可得性随原油生产和精炼的情况而变化.在目前的新冠形势下，炼油厂的相对较低产出一直是并仍然是进一步造成原材料普遍短缺的因素.减产应能稳定大流行期间原油价格的暴跌。新冠肺炎疫情导致的油价下跌和OPEC+1成员国的减产导致依赖石油的海湾国家出口收入下降。另一个不应被忽视的因素是沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯在2020年春季的价格战.因此，供应链的损害早就开始了。

Apple’s mobility data show that mobility increased significantly again in Europe, Great Britain and the USA at the beginning of 2021 [5]. However, oil production remained low during this period [6, 7]. Currently, from December 2021, OPEC is to increase output by 400,000 barrels a day [9] and is to keep producing at the higher level until at least April 2022 [4]. OPEC is struggling with a number of challenges: a seasonal decline in demand, a partial draw-down of strategic reserves in some countries (e. g. China, Japan, USA) and demand uncertainty due to the new omicron variant of coronavirus. According to market analysts, it can be assumed that the risks to oil demand are already priced in at 70 US dollars per barrel and that the oil-exporting countries are comfortable with this price [9]. Current estimates by BP, an oil and natural gas company, are for oil demand to again hit around 100 million barrels per day, or the pre-pandemic production level [10]. The most important petrochemical feedstocks made by steam crackers are ethylene and propylene. These basic chemicals are used to produce ethylene oxide and propylene oxide, and others. In a further step, for example, they are converted into diethylene glycol, ethylene glycol, propylene glycol and polyols, which are used for the production of unsaturated and saturated polyester resins, oil-modified polyester resins, emulsifiers and paint additives.

苹果的移动数据显示，在2021年初，欧洲、英国和美国的移动用户再次显著增加.然而在此期间，石油产量仍然很低[6,7].而今，从2021年12月起，OPEC将每天增加40万桶产量，并至少在2022年4月之前保持较高的产出水平。OPEC正艰难应对一系列挑战: 需求的季节性下降，一些国家(如中国、日本、美国)的原油战略储备部分减少，以及新冠omicron变种而导致的需求不确定性。据市场分析人士称，每桶70美元的价格已经反映出石油需求的风险，石油出口国对此价格也感到满意。石油和天然气公司BP目前估计，石油需求将再次达到约1亿桶/天，即大流行前的产量水平[10].蒸汽裂化炉生产的最重要的石化原料是乙烯和丙烯。这些基本的化学物质被用来生产环氧乙烷和环氧丙烷等.在进一步的步骤中，例如，它们被转换成二甘醇、乙二醇、丙二醇和多元醇，用于生产不饱和和饱和聚酯树脂、油改性聚酯树脂、乳化剂和涂料添加剂等.

The term “force majeure” is used to describe unusual, damaging events that prevent a contracting party (supplier) from fulfilling a contract through no fault of its own [11]. There have been more than 200 reported cases of force majeure in the global chemical industry so far in 2021. Last February, an arctic cold front also affected half of the US states. Hardest hit by the polar storm, with temperatures of down to minus 39 degrees Celsius, was the state of Texas, which is not accustomed to freezing winters of such severity. The outcome was a further tightening of the global supply of raw materials, as more than 70 chemical plants had to shut down. The impact on the global market was excessive and continues to this day.

“不可抗力”一词用于描述由于并非订约方(供应商)的自身过错导致订约方(供应商)无法履行合同的不寻常的、破坏性的事件.到目前为止，2021年全球化学行业报告的不可抗力事件已超过200起.去年2月，一股北极冷空气也影响了美国一半的州.德克萨斯州受此次极地风暴影响最严重，该州的气温降至零下39摄氏度，该州未习惯如此严寒的冬天。这一气候问题使得70多家化工厂被迫关闭, 导致全球原材料供应进一步吃紧. 并对全球市场造成过度影响,影响一直持续到今天.

The availability of raw materials was extensively impaired, especially in the case of ethylene and propylene, which serve as feedstocks for most of the other basic building blocks for the paint industry.This led to an extreme shortage of raw materials for acrylic monomers, ethylene glycol, propylene glycol, polyols, epichlorohydrin, bisphenol A, phenol, isocyanates and many more. As a result, prices skyrocketed by up to 70 %, e.g. for alkyd, polyester, polyacrylic, phenolic resins, acrylic dispersions, acrylo-styrene dispersions and epoxy resins. In addition, there were numerous disruptions in European plants for the production of isocyanates, methyl-ethyl-hydroxyethyl cellulose, organic solvents such as dipropylene glycol methyl ether, n-butyl acetate, acetone, ethyl acetate, n-butanol, MIBK, and methoxypropyl acetate. Compared to spring 2020, the average prices in Europe for solvents rose by 42 - 63 % and for binders, by 20 - 45 % [12].

而原料的供应也受到广泛影响，特别是作为涂料行业大多数其他化学品的基本原料的乙烯和丙烯。这导致了丙烯酸单体、乙二醇、丙二醇、多元醇、环氧氯丙烷、双酚A、苯酚、异氰酸酯等原料的极度短缺。从而如醇酸树脂，聚酯，聚丙烯酸，酚醛树脂，丙烯酸分散体，丙烯腈-苯乙烯分散体和环氧树脂等价格飞涨高达70%，此外，欧洲工厂在生产异氰酸酯、甲基乙基羟乙基纤维素、有机溶剂(如二丙二醇甲醚、乙酸正丁酯、丙酮、乙酸乙酯、正丁醇、MIBK和乙酸甲氧基丙酯)方面也出现了多次中断.与2020年春季相比，欧洲溶剂的平均价格上涨了42 - 63%，粘合剂的平均价格上涨了20 - 45%[12].

Due to global consolidation of the titanium dioxide industry and a strategic change in the pricing policy adopted by the leading manufacturers, the prices for titanium dioxide have risen continuously since 2016. The titanium dioxide industry has identified the dependence of the paint industry on titanium dioxide and is very purposefully pursuing a high rate of return in the double-digit range for its shareholders. According to the latest report by RND, the global titanium dioxide market is expected to generate sales worth USD 30.72 billion in 2028, up from USD 22.1 billion in 2020. That translates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% [13]. Small and medium-sized companies are the losers here, as they are forced to pay 25 - 35 % higher prices via distributors, compared to large companies.

由于二氧化钛行业的全球整合和主要制造商采取的定价政策的战略变化，自2016年以来，二氧化钛价格持续上涨.二氧化钛行业已经认识到涂料行业对二氧化钛的依赖，并非常有意地为其股东追求两位数范围内的高回报率.根据RND的最新报告，预计到2028年，全球二氧化钛市场的销售额将从2020年的221亿美元上升到307.2亿美元.这意味着复合年增长率(CAGR)为4.2%。在这方面，中小企业是输家，因为他们被迫通过分销商支付比大企业高25 - 35%的价格.

The titanium dioxide industry currently finds itself in a comfortable position as regards the allocation of its products. At the current high price level, it is seeking out long-term contracts, mainly with large customers, on the pretext of security of supply. The battle between large buyers in the coatings industry and their smaller counterparts is already in full swing. Many large companies are playing hardball, no matter what the losses are, in their attempts to secure supplies of titanium dioxide. A large company, in this context, is one with, e.g., a requirement for more than 250,000 t/a. For the paint industry, which is mostly made up of SMEs, this poses major risks in terms of both the supply chain and vastly over-inflated prices.

在产品配置方面,二氧化钛行业发现目前自己处于一个较为舒适的位置.在目前的高价格水平下，它以供应链安全为理由，寻求客户的长期合同，主要是与大客户的长期合同.涂料行业的大买家和小买家之间的竞争已经全面展开.为了确保二氧化钛的供应，许多大公司(需求超过250000吨/年的公司)正在不及损失的采取强硬措施。对于主要由中小企业组成的涂料行业来说，这在供应链和过度膨胀的价格方面风险巨大.

A ray of hope for the smaller, price-sensitive companies is the intention of Chinese titanium dioxide manufacturers to boost their production capacities. However, the Chinese titanium dioxide industry itself is currently facing cost spikes. A price adjustment comparable to that of the other global titanium dioxide manufacturers is already in play. It can be assumed that there will be no significant changes in pricing and availability in Q1 and Q2 of 2022. Nonetheless, the situation remains very tense. As long as demand in China remains high, price reductions and a higher share of exports cannot be expected. The always slightly lower titanium dioxide prices asked by Chinese manufacturers in the past were based on lower domestic demand and a motivation to boost their share of exports and thus their global market share.

对于规模较小、对价格敏感的企业而言，中国二氧化钛制造商提高产能的意图给它们带来了一线希望。中国制造商过去二氧化钛价格要价总是略低一些，这是为了应对国内需求下降,意图提高其出口份额,进而提高其全球市场份额的目的。然而，中国二氧化钛行业本身目前正面临成本飙升。与全球其他二氧化钛制造商类似的价格调整已经开始实施。可以假设，在2022年前两季度，价格和供货率不会有重大变化. 尽管如此，供应局势仍然非常紧张.只要中国自身的需求仍然很高，降价和提高出口份额就不用指望.

As a rule, multinational titanium dioxide manufacturers have no interest in building up new capacities as that would weaken their share price. Instead, they are looking for large titanium dioxide customers that can commit to long-term purchase agreements and are active in less price-sensitive markets. In return, they offer security of supply and a certain degree of price stability.

通常情况下，跨国二氧化钛制造商对提升产能没有兴趣，因为这将削弱它们的股价。相反，他们正在寻找能够承诺长期购买协议，并在价格不太敏感的市场上活跃的大型二氧化钛客户。作为回报，它们提供了供应链安全和一定程度的价格稳定性.

In fairness, it should be mentioned that producers of titanium dioxide are also under a certain amount of cost pressure. The rapid rise in world market prices for chlorine, titanium ores, the higher costs of container and bulk freight, and much higher energy prices will lead to further price hikes. This will give rise to further market consolidation in the coatings industry. China, Australia and South Africa are the leading producers of titanium ores. Worldwide, China is also one of the largest exporters and domestic consumers of titanium minerals. The largest deposits of titanium iron ore (ilmenite) are currently in China, Australia, India, Brazil, Norway, and South Africa. Australia has the world’s largest reserves of rutile ores. World reserves of ilmenite, expressed in terms of titanium dioxide content, are approx. 740 million tons, with those of rutile running at approx. 700 million tonnes [14]. In summary, it can be said that the TiO2 manufacturers have changed the “game” in their favour and are applying more and more pressure on the buyers in paint companies.

公平地说，应该提到的是，二氧化钛生产商也面临一定的成本压力。氯、钛矿石的国际市场价格迅速上涨，集装箱和散货运费成本上升，能源价格大幅上涨，将导致价格进一步上涨.这将导致涂料行业进一步的市场整合。中国、澳大利亚和南非是钛矿石的主要生产国.在世界范围内，中国也是钛矿的最大出口国和国内消费国之一.目前最大的钛铁矿(钛铁矿)矿藏在中国、澳大利亚、印度、巴西、挪威和南非.澳大利亚拥有世界上最大的金红石矿藏.以二氧化钛含量表示的钛铁矿世界储量约为7.4亿吨，其中金红石矿的产量约为7亿吨[14]。综上所述，可以这样说，TiO2制造商已经改变了“游戏”，并对涂料公司的买家施加越来越大的压力。

The causes of the shortages and the increases in raw materials prices are very complex. They are mainly a combination of stronger market demand and plant shutdowns due to storms and plant maintenance, temporary port closures due to corona outbreaks, congestion in seaports, shortages of sea-going containers and ocean-going vessels, extreme increases in freight costs, shortages of trucks and drivers, lower oil production and, after the corona pandemic, the swift upswing in the Chinese economy and, in its wake, the global economy. There is every reason to believe that energy prices for coal, oil and gas will continue to rise in the first few months of 2022. Very high coal prices have already triggered the first power cuts in China in 2021. Possible consequences are further shortages of raw materials on the world market. In an attempt to avert further price increases in the energy sector, numerous countries have started tapping into their strategic oil and gas reserves.

原材料短缺和原材料价格上涨的原因非常复杂.这主要是由于市场需求强劲，暴风雨和工厂维修导致工厂关闭，新冠疫情导致港口临时关闭，海港超负荷，海运集装箱和远洋船舶短缺，货运成本极端上升，卡车和司机短缺，石油产量下降，以及新冠肺炎疫情后，中国经济迅速复苏，全球经济也随之开始复苏。我们有充分的理由相信，煤炭、石油和天然气等能源价格将在2022年的头几个月继续上涨。过高的煤炭价格已经导致中国在2021年首次掐电.可能的后果是世界市场上的原材料进一步短缺。为了避免能源行业价格进一步上涨，许多国家已开始利用其战略油气储备.

It can be assumed that the raw materials shortages will continue in 2022 even as the global economy starts to recover after Corona. The EU’s dependence on raw materials from abroad has increased further. Climate change is creating additional uncertainty, with severe weather events becoming more commonplace. As a result, plant shutdowns and short-term delivery bottlenecks are likely to happen more frequently than before. The raw materials situation in 2022 will keep the coatings industry preoccupied with new formulations and reformulations. Over the next few years, the restructuring of the product portfolio in favour of bio-based and more sustainable products as well as carbon-neutral production will be an ongoing topic in the chemical and coatings industry (“European Green Deal”). Product development departments will base their choice of basic raw materials increasingly on their carbon footprint and sustainability.

可以预测，即使在新冠肺炎疫情之后，世界经济开始复苏，2022年也将继续出现原材料短缺现象.欧盟对国外原材料的依赖进一步增加.气候变化带来了更多的不确定性，恶劣天气事件变得更加常见.因此，工厂关闭和短期交货瓶颈可能会比以前更频繁地发生.2022年的原材料形势将使涂料行业专注于新配方和重改配方.在未来的几年中，资产组合重组将有利于生物基和更可持续的产品，以及碳中性生产将是化学和涂料行业的一个持续的话题(“欧洲绿色协议”).产品开发部门将越来越多地根据其碳足迹和可持续性来选择基础原材料.

Europe should draw its conclusions relatively quickly from the lessons of the Covid-19 pandemic and, in addition to targeting decarbonisation of the chemical industry by 2050, should formulate a clear, EU-based “Raw Materials and Recycling Strategy 2030” (“independence strategy”) that is backed up by appropriate measures, and then implement it in conjunction with the European chemical industry. Europe and the coatings industry need a stronger chemical industry that is more independent from Asia and the USA. True to the motto: “Learning from crises means being courageous, and gaining more independence from the rest of the world”.

欧洲应相对迅速地从Covid-19大流行的教训中得出结论，除了力争在2050年实现化学工业脱碳化外，还应制定一个明确的、基于欧盟的“2030年原材料和回收战略”(“独立战略”)，并辅以适当的措施.然后与欧洲化学行业业合作实施.欧洲和涂料工业需要一个更强大的化学工业，从亚洲和美国独立出来.正如格言所说:“从危机中吸取经验教训,意味着勇敢，也能更独立于世界。”